North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Fall as Market Braces for Nvidia Earnings, Inflation Reading

Dow Jones
Aug 26

Stock futures were mostly heading for a negative open ahead of crunch

earnings from chip maker Nvidia.

However, futures tied to the Dow Industrial Average were rising and lower oil prices buoyed equity markets in Asia and Europe.

Iran and Oman discussed measures to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The countries said they would also work together to clear the strait of mines.

Meanwhile Trump had said in a Truth Social post Tuesday that the U.S. Navy had removed or detonated all mines in the strait.

The flurry of positive headlines raised hopes for diplomatic progress in the region and Treasury yields and the dollar edged higher.

Bellwether Nvidia will report after close today and investors will be looking for any cracks in its figures.

However-while still key--Nvidia's figures might be less important than those from the latest AI darling Marvell--set to report Thursday.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said earlier this year that Marvell would become the next trillion-dollar chip company, and it is now at the heart of the AI boom.

A major supplier of optical networking products critical for connecting servers in data centers it also designs custom chips, an area of the business it strengthened last week through a $120 billion deal with Google.

Traders were treading carefully, also waiting on today's release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures price index-the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has kept his views on interest rates close to the vest, leaving investors and Fed officials to guess how he plans to tackle inflation.

Stocks to watch

Intuit fell more than 11% premarket after it projected sales growth would slow in the year ahead.

NCino fell premarket after projected revenue in a range with a midpoint below analyst expectations.

Spyre Therapeutics said it wouldn't prioritize developing one of its drug candidates as a monotherapy for rheumatoid arthritis. The stock slid premarket.

Zoom Communications' guidance missed Wall Street expectations. Shares were down more than 5% premarket.

Watch For:

Personal Income and Spending for July; GDP, second reading for 2Q; Durable Goods for July; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; Earnings from Nvidia, Abercrombie & Fitch, J.M. Smucker, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, HP Inc. and Okta

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-Microsoft Is Leaving Investors Flying Blind on Its AI Businesses -Detroit Needs Canada More Than the Rest of the U.S. Does -Three Takeaways From Bill Gates's 5,784-Word Warning on AI: 'There Is No Plan'

MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The dollar traded marginally higher as investors awaited the release of the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, PCE data.

The Kansas City Federal Reserve's upcoming Jackson Hole symposium later this week will also be key for the dollar if Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh recommits to taming inflation.

The dollar could weaken further against the Chinese yuan over the coming months, ING said, however, the pace of depreciation could slow going forward.

The Chinese central bank could be displeased over the pace of renminbi gains recently, it said, and the U.S. announcement about possible sanctions on Chinese entities with ties to Iran could affect the yuan's strength.

"Our base case assumes a gently offered dollar environment and dollar/ yuan edging lower towards 6.70 over the coming months."

Bonds:

Treasury yields mostly edged higher.

ING said the Treasury's decision to double buybacks of long-end securities continues to reverberate, but market talk will slowly morph toward a front-end focus as the Jackson Hole symposium approaches.

"While Treasury Secretary Bessent continues to boss the back end, or intends to, Chair Warsh would probably like to do the same on the front end, but has chosen to lie low for now."

J.P. Morgan expected the Treasury's $70 billion auction of five-year notes on Wednesday to go smoothly, adding that the offer might benefit from favorable valuations.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments said Treasury borrowing needs remained substantial and, with bond auction sizes expected to remain steady into 2027, short-dated bills are likely to carry more of the burden.

Energy:

Oil prices held below $90 a barrel as a flurry of positive headlines around Iran peace talks soothed traders.

Diplomats from Iran and Oman discussed a framework that would allow shipping to resume through the Hormuz Strait, the countries said in a joint statement.

Meanwhile, "anecdotal evidence suggests there is an increasing flow of vessels utilizing the Omani route through Hormuz," ANZ said.

Axios reported that around 40 ships transited the strait over the weekend, while The New York Times reported U.S. diplomats would return to the Middle East.

Metals:

New York gold futures traded broadly flat.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Siemens Energy Plans to Spin Off Transformation of Industry Unit

Siemens Energy said it is preparing to spin off its Transformation of Industry division and is exploring potential ownership structures as it focuses on power generation and power transmission.

The German maker of energy equipment is reporting record orders and bumper profits amid a burgeoning U.S. data center sector. But as growth in its gas turbines and power transmission businesses accelerates, the Transformation of Industry unit is struggling to compete for capital, the company said. The hope is that a separation will give the business more flexibility and growth opportunities.

Salesforce Reports Earnings While Disrupting Itself to Fight AI

Salesforce will report second-quarter earnings on Wednesday afternoon amid the most uncertainty it has faced since its earliest days. Although the stock has rallied in the past month-rising 41% from its June low-it's still down 41% from its all-time high at the end of 2024.

Wall Street analysts are projecting $3.27 in adjusted earnings per share, rising from $2.91 a year ago. Sales are expected to be $11.3 billion, up 11% from last year.

OpenAI's Head of Data Centers Has Left the Company

A key executive overseeing OpenAI's data-center build-out, Chris Malone, left the company last week, according to people familiar with the matter, joining a wave of leadership departures ahead of a planned public offering.

Malone joined OpenAI as head of data centers in March 2025, shortly after the company announced Stargate, an ambitious effort with Oracle and SoftBank to build data centers to meet its rapidly growing computing needs.

XPeng Bets Robots Will Be More Profitable Than Its Cars

XPeng carved out a space in China's car market with autonomous driving. But it's robots, not vehicles, that could become the company's biggest money maker.

Though the U.S.-listed company's robotics unit has yet to generate meaningful revenue, XPeng Co-President Brian Gu thinks its margins will eventually eclipse those of the core electric-vehicle business.

Anthropic Expected to Tell Investors It Sees Over $30 Trillion in Potential Revenue

SpaceX's record-breaking IPO tested the limits of an obscure financial metric. Anthropic's could push it even further.

The maker of Claude is likely to tell investors its potential revenue opportunities are above $30 trillion, topping SpaceX's $28.5 trillion estimate, according to people familiar with the matter.

Warsh Wants to Track the Money Supply. It Keeps Flashing Red.

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh loves to talk about the supply of money in the economy and its effects on inflation. He won't like what the fresh data on it has to say.

The money supply hit $23.22 trillion in July, rising 5.41% from a year earlier. It is fastest the money supply has grown since mid-2022, and could make it harder for the Fed to bring down annual inflation to its 2% target.

Canada Hits Back at U.S. With Tariffs Targeting Midterm Hot Spots

OTTAWA-Canada plans to impose tariffs of up to 50% on roughly 700 American products in retaliation for new U.S. levies, Canadian officials said Tuesday, escalating tensions between two of the world's most closely integrated economies.

The Canadian tariffs were designed to protect domestic companies hit by a fresh set of hefty U.S. tariffs and to sting President Trump and his Republican Party as they head into a difficult midterm election in November, Canadian officials said. The new levies would go into effect Sept. 8, affecting about $20 billion worth of goods, or roughly 7% of total U.S. imports.

Trump Senate Pick Darline Graham Wins GOP Runoff in South Carolina

Sen. Darline Graham narrowly won South Carolina's Republican Senate primary runoff Tuesday, after President Trump flexed his political muscles in the final days of the campaign to get her over the finish line.

With 99% of the vote counted, Graham had 52%, while Rep. Ralph Norman, who represents a district in the northern part of the state, had 48%, according to the Associated Press.

Trump Sends Nuclear Agreement With Saudi Arabia to Congress

President Trump has submitted a landmark nuclear accord with Saudi Arabia to Congress for review, but hasn't dropped his last minute condition that the kingdom normalize relations with Israel, an administration official said.

The move is expected to trigger months of intensive debate among lawmakers about how to boost the American nuclear industry while curbing the spread of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.

California Attorney General Ramps Up Criticism of Paramount

California Attorney General Rob Bonta took Paramount to task Tuesday, accusing the company of focusing on "the court of public opinion instead of the court of law" as it tries to preserve its $81 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.

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