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【券商聚焦】国金证券维持现代牧业（01117）买入评级 看好周期上行景气度

金吾财讯
Aug 26

金吾财讯 | 国金证券发布研报指，现代牧业（01117）2026年上半年实现营收79.9亿元，同比增长7.33%；归母净利润0.19亿元，同比扭亏为盈。其中，公平值减乳牛销售成本值的变动为-7.6亿元，同比减亏10.6亿元。原料奶业务方面，26H1原料奶产量178万吨，同比增长7.1%，但平均销售价格3.21元/公斤，同比下降2.3%，奶价依旧承压。受益于成母牛单产与养殖效率提升，公斤奶销售成本下降至2.29元/公斤，同比下降1.3%。原料奶业务实现收入53.99亿元，同比增长6.5%，毛利率下降0.7pct至29.5%。牛群结构持续优化，截至26H1存栏奶牛46.09万头，较2025年底增加0.8%，成母牛比例提升至60.1%。由于未来奶价回升预期，成母牛头均价值评估值较25年底基本持平，叠加牛肉价格上涨带动淘汰收入增加，公平值减乳牛销售成本值亏损大幅减少。综合养殖解决方案实现收入11.94亿元，同比增长18.9%，毛利率提升3.9pct至11.2%。公司26H1实现经营性现金流7.69亿元，同比增长56.8%；资产负债率下降1.1pct至72.1%。国金证券预计公司2026-2028年分别实现归母净利润6.6/17.2/22.2亿元，对应EPS0.08/0.22/0.28元，27/28年对应PE估值为7/5倍，维持“买入”评级。研报认为牛肉与牛奶周期上行已经开启，积极看好公司在周期上行的景气度。风险提示包括奶价表现不及预期、动物疫病风险、宏观经济风险。

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