ChainCatcher 消息，20VC 合伙人 P_Bonnet 发文以铝业历史类比 AI，探讨“若一切顺利”的情景。多数供应短缺会在 3-5 年内转为过剩并摧毁价值，但铝用逾百年完成价格下跌超 99.9%、市场扩大超 1000 倍的过程，因每次降价都解锁新用途，而非在同一市场内崩盘。
AI Token 正以快约 10 倍的速度走相同成本阶梯，关键节点是人类不再成为约束。对话式 AI 受人类阅读速度与用户规模限制，而推理与智能体可使消费者不再是人，Agentic AI 或彻底移除人类上限，仅剩快速改善的成本与效用。铝业也曾依赖工艺突破才将廉价金属变为结构材料。
基础设施层，Alcoa 曾凭工艺、自有矿石与电力垄断数十年；Nvidia 拥有 CUDA 等工艺积累，产能更像租用，且自身缺乏电力，大客户已直接锁定核电并自研芯片。最终价值会层层转移至发现旧价格下不可能存在的新用途的一方，价格崩塌、技术奏效与资金迁移并非对立，而是同一结果。
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