Bitcoin is caught in crypto's hostile indifference phase. That may be a powerful contrarian signal.

The best time to buy bitcoin is when everyone hates it, and that time appears to be now.

There's a stage in every bitcoin bear market when people stop asking me whether they should buy.

Eventually, they stop asking about bitcoin altogether. Sometimes the mere mention of crypto generates an almost visceral reaction.

As someone who's invested in bitcoin since 2017, I've seen this movie before. I first invested in bitcoin (BTCUSD) after a software engineer at a major tech company sold me on the technology while I was living in San Francisco. And when I got my bonus from a job as a senior equity analyst, I took his advice and bought my first bitcoin.

Little did I know that decision would be the start of a decade of spectacular rallies, sickening crashes and one very useful lesson about investor psychology: that the best time to buy cryptocurrencies is when everybody hates them.

Investors aren't terrified of it anymore. They're fed up with it.

That broader hostility toward crypto, after a rather tough start to the year, has spilled over into bitcoin. Investors aren't terrified of it anymore. They're fed up with it.

Until recently, anyone who bought bitcoin after October 2024 was down on their investment. Add in crypto scandals, regulatory uncertainty and years of extreme volatility, and retail investors were simply exhausted. Meanwhile, artificial-intelligence stocks, like those of Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron Technology (MU), were delivering previously cryptolike returns in the stock market.

But bitcoin has found its footing, rallying nearly 30% after the U.S. Treasury expanded long-duration bond buybacks. That move showed Washington is willing to lean against higher yields even if it means further debasing the U.S. dollar.

And those dynamics play directly into the bitcoin bull case.

Bitcoin has no top because government-issued currencies have no bottom

My long-term bitcoin bull thesis, which I laid out in the first chapter of my 2022 book with Simon & Schuster, has always centered on scarcity and liquidity.

Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million coins, while governments continue issuing more debt and expanding the money supply. Periods of easy financial conditions tend to increase demand for scarce assets that the government can't print like gold and commodities, and bitcoin has historically responded with far more volatility than these traditional alternatives.

The potential buyer base has also changed dramatically since I first invested nearly a decade ago.

Spot ETFs from BlackRock (BLK) have made bitcoin accessible through conventional brokerage accounts. Corporations like Tesla (TSLA) and Block (XYZ) have added bitcoin to their balance sheets. Institutional custody at Coinbase Global (COIN) and others has matured. Governments, including the Trump administration in the U.S., are now openly debating buying bitcoin directly. Every new bitcoin buyer competes for an asset whose maximum supply cannot increase when demand rises.

And there's another development I'm watching: Institutional investors are increasingly moving beyond bitcoin and into the broader crypto ecosystem. In fact, one of the greatest hedge-fund managers of all time just disclosed a position in a little-known crypto stock tied to this same trend. I'll discuss this stock, explain the underlying business and break down whether I'll be buying it for my own portfolio in the next free Let's Analyze newsletter. You can subscribe here to get the research when it goes live.

All of this makes me increasingly confident that a new bitcoin cycle has begun.

Bitcoin's bear market is ending

Nobody rings a bell at the bottom, but the market does leave clues when a bottom has been hit.

For instance, in April 2023, I told my readers I believed a new bitcoin cycle had begun when the price was around $27,000.

The backdrop was awful. FTX had collapsed months earlier. Sam Bankman-Fried had become the face of crypto for all the wrong reasons. Investors wanted nothing to do with crypto, and bitcoin was guilty by association.

Nevertheless, bitcoin rallied over 300% over the next two years. And, by the time bitcoin was over $100,000, everyone wanted to know whether it was "too late" to buy.

And the setup today is eerily similar to early 2023. Sentiment around bitcoin has been some of the worst on record thanks to the 50% decline between October 2025 and February 2026. But, since that crash, prices have stabilized, bases have formed and buyers have come back into the market.

The technical evidence has improved substantially, too. Bitcoin has broken its intermediate downtrend, reclaimed important moving averages and pushed through resistance on stronger volume.

Technical analysis isn't gospel, but it's worth tracking as price action often reveals changes in supply and demand before the narrative catches up.

Right now, sentiment, fundamentals and price action are finally pointing in the same direction.

So what would prove me wrong?

This is my thesis breaker

For now, my line in the sand for bitcoin is $60,000. A decisive break below that level would represent a new 52-week low and force me to reassess. A major reversal in global liquidity, a sharply stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions would remove an important macro tailwind.

"Bitcoin seems risky" isn't enough. Of course it's risky. I've watched my crypto portfolio fall 50% multiple times. The question is whether you are being sufficiently compensated for taking that risk.

Right now, I think we are being more than compensated. In my view, bitcoin represents the best asymmetric bet I've seen in markets in years.

Eventually, everyone will want to talk about bitcoin again. I'd rather be paying attention before they do.

Robert Ross is the founder of TikStocks and author of "A Beginner's Guide to High-Risk, High-Reward Investing." A former chief equity analyst at Mauldin Economics, Ross writes the investment newsletter Let's Analyze on Substack and hosts the weekly "Room to Run" podcast.

-Robert Ross