沃什一句话搅动全球金融市场 市场预测美联储9月加息概率飙升

智通财经
Aug 30
【沃什一句话搅动全球金融市场 市场预测美联储9月加息概率飙升】北京时间周五晚上,美联储主席凯文·沃什在2026年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表就任后的首次主旨演讲,他表示:“我们必须确信,基础通胀正清晰且以足够快的速度向我们的目标回落,否则,我们还有工作要做。”美联储9月加息概率一夜之间从35%飙到60%,沃什在杰克逊霍尔的首次亮相,为何让华尔街瞬间“风声鹤唳”?首先我们来看市场的反应。沃什讲话后,和美联储利率预期高度挂钩的两年期美债收益率当天从4.22%跃升至4.35%,创近一个月新高。美元指数上涨至99.703。国际金价重挫近3%。美国三大股指当天也全线下跌。尽管没有直接宣布9月加息,但沃什给出的政策条件十分明确。市场普遍将此理解为:如果通胀无法以足够快的速度回落,美联储就要进一步收紧货币政策。而目前的数据显然还没有让沃什完全放心。受此影响,市场迅速调整美联储9月政策预期。芝商所“美联储观察”工具显示,市场押注美联储9月加息的概率从前一天的约35%升至近60%。不过,沃什强调,本次讲话不应被解读为 “前瞻指引”,过早向市场暗示甚至承诺未来的利率路径,可能会制造新的误导。

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