摩根士丹利:沃什讲话偏鹰但9月加息仍非定局 年内或继续按兵不动

智通财经
Aug 31
【摩根士丹利:沃什讲话偏鹰但9月加息仍非定局 年内或继续按兵不动】摩根士丹利研报指出,美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话明显偏鹰,强调通胀仍是当前首要问题,并明确短期利率是实现政策目标的主要工具,同时重申2%的PCE通胀目标是“坚定、固定”的目标。讲话后,市场一度计入9月加息25个基点概率约58%,预计年底前累计加息约44个基点。不过,摩根士丹利并未因此改变判断,仍预计美联储今年维持利率不变。该行认为,沃什并非传统意义上通过讲话提供明确前瞻指引的主席,其鹰派表态更多是保留政策选择,而非承诺9月行动。若判断错误、美联储最终启动加息,预计本轮总幅度更可能为50至75个基点,而非100至150个基点以上的激进紧缩周期。

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