中信证券9月科技板块投资策略:坚持再平衡,关注新技术,静待新叙事

智通财经
Sep 03
【中信证券9月科技板块投资策略:坚持再平衡,关注新技术,静待新叙事】中信证券发布的9月科技板块投资策略指出,全球科技股中报披露逐步进入尾声,不论是美股CSP与Neocloud的收入与订单、CAPEX ROIC与英伟达中报对于2028财年收入增速的超预期指引,还是A股中芯国际与长鑫科技等龙头第二季度业绩环比大幅提升,都已充分证明并不存在系统性的“算力过剩”。展望科技股后市,尽管EPS表现仍然强劲,但仍面临美国加息预期波动、长债利率走高、Anthropic上市冲击美股流动性等一系列估值压制因素,AI板块整体仍呈现“强现实、弱预期”的特征,整体情绪仍需要等待AI4S、企业级AI、RSI等新叙事更加明朗并凝聚共识,后续行情预计回归到盈利兑现为基础、新技术新应用新叙事驱动边际定价的阶段。展望9月,新模型迭代、海外大模型IPO进展及半导体扩产仍是科技板块最重要的叙事催化。与此同时,9月3日Cybercab发布会也有望重拾市场对于物理AI的关注。配置上,坚持硬件与软件/云再平衡、扩产链+技术升级链>涨价链、结构重于仓位:关注AI应用生态丰富、云业务加速的头部互联网公司,硬件板块首推景气度仍在加速的半导体设备,其次业绩向好、估值合理的国产存储与先进代工龙头,以及大光等;主题上,关注Cybercab发布带来的自动驾驶/物理AI、AI短剧/漫剧、FDE与企业级AI等新应用方向的机会。

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