【券商聚焦】中信建投:无论美联储加息与否,短期策略均建议谨慎

金吾财讯
Sep 03

金吾财讯 | 中信建投证券研报称,临近议息会议,市场预期总体靠谱,大方向偏差少。但会议前3周,也曾出现7次预期突变,尤其2023年6月,会议前3周市场定价加息,后变为不加,最终联储未加息。共性催化是官员讲话,会议前夕官员态度比数据更重要。历次最终加息,会议前3周市场定价加息次数普遍高于0.7次,均值0.9次;目前定价加息仅0.67次,明显偏低,仍存变数。该机构指,当前变数主要包括:1)官员维持利率不变声音增多,有决定性意义。2)核心CPI环比低于0.2%,是临门一脚。3)美伊和油价走势。该机构认为,鉴于市场目前预期相对充分,且美债收益率已经大幅走高,如果加息,倾向于利空落地的逻辑,且意味着短期再度加息的风险大幅下降,市场的直接冲击不会太大。若不加息,大概率是油价、CPI等回落,市场对加息预期提前淡化,因此负面冲击不大,甚至可能带来宽松交易。若是市场仍定价加息,但沃什仍坚持不加息,则可能出现7月议息会议的翻版,长债利率继续冲高,此时高利率会对美股、黄金等均构成巨大挑战。但是,无论是哪种情形,短期市场均缺乏趋势性机会,利率走高、经济偏弱、AI放缓,三重逻辑下,市场很难形成主线,各类资产均有压制;这不是一次议息会议加息与否、美伊冲突缓和与否能够解决的范畴,建议谨慎,等待形势进一步明朗。

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