华创证券:26H1上市险企归母净利润普遍高增 保险板块防御属性凸显

智通财经
Sep 03

智通财经APP获悉,华创证券发布研报称,2026H1上市险企归母净利润普遍高增,国寿表现突出,板块与权益市场共振。但上半年受资金面影响与科技行情“虹吸”,保险板块持续下探;下半年以来从“K型”走向“再均衡”,保险板块已有回升。当前多数险企估值位于十年50%分位之下,悲观预期或已充分反映,底部价值凸显。短期来看,整体板块Q3业绩基数压力相对较大;长期看,虽然净投资收益率仍处下行通道,但负债成本优化对冲利差压力,“利差损”风险有望趋于收敛,资负联动管理能力预计持续提升,驱动PEV估值修复。财险方面,风险减量管理服务体系压降赔付率,行业严监管促进费用率优化,COR改善驱动ROE稳步抬升,推动PB上涨。

华创证券主要观点如下:

寿险:分红险转型深化,个险渠道集体回暖

2026H1上市险企NBV全数实现正增长,国寿、阳光、太保、新华、平安维持双位数增长。量价驱动因素亦差异化,国寿量质齐驱,阳光、平安、太平以量驱动,太保、新华、人保以价驱动。分渠道来看,个险集体回暖,七家上市险企新单全部正增;银保渠道明显分化,或受渠道竞争加剧及费用管控影响。产品结构上,新华、太保、太平等分红险新单占比大幅提升。行业分红险转型成效进一步深化,新单持续稀释存量保单成本压力。

产险:COR普遍优化,头部车险增速放缓

2026H1财产险行业保费增速整体放缓,太平、平安跑赢同业,人保、太保微增,阳光受主动压缩保证险影响承压下行。分险种来看,除太平外车险增速普遍放缓;非车险分化,平安受意健险高增驱动表现突出。从盈利能力来看,除太平外上市险企COR均优化,人保领先同业;车险COR全面改善,非车险表现分化,责任险仍是主要拖累,非车险报行合一成效有望进一步显现。

投资:上半年普遍增配权益,投资收益多数上行

2026H1长端利率中枢延续下行,净投资收益率普遍承压。权益市场结构性行情下,险企积极把握投资机遇,总投资收益率多数上行。配置结构上,上市险企延续增配权益,股票+基金占比普遍提升;债券占比变动分化。会计分类上,股票中FVOCI占比变动分化,或反映险企股票策略差异;债券FVTPL占比多数下降。资负管理新规落地后,险企权益配置上预计更加关注“高股息打底+成长博取超额”策略。

风险提示:长端利率下行、权益市场波动、转型不及预期、自然灾害频发。

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