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【券商聚焦】交银国际维持比亚迪股份（01211）买入评级 看好下半年出口

金吾财讯
Sep 01

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，比亚迪股份（01211）2Q26收入1,946亿元，环比增长29.5%、较市场预期低约10%；归母净利82.4亿元，环比翻倍、较市场预期低约8%。该机构测算剔除比亚迪电子后的单车收入由1Q26约16万元降至约14万元，但毛利率仍维持18.9%，显示盈利改善主要来自销量恢复、费用杠杆及海外高利润业务。1H26海外乘用车及皮卡销量约78.9万辆，同比增长68%，已占集团销量约44%；海外收入同比增长33.9%至1,813亿元。按该机构测算，1H26海外业务毛利率约28.4%，显著高于中国内地的17.0%，意味着新增销量向海外迁移本身具有利润增厚效应。7月海外乘用车及皮卡销量进一步升至近18万辆并创历史新高，该机构预计欧洲、东南亚及拉美渠道扩张和本地化产能释放将支持这一趋势延续，出口将成为未来两个季度最重要的盈利驱动。该机构指，1H26集团收入和归母净利仍分别同比下降7.1%和20.5%，中国内地车市需求及价格竞争尚未明显缓解。相较之下，海外销量高增长、较高的海外业务毛利率以及2Q26费用杠杆释放，已经为下半年盈利改善提供更清晰的支撑。该机构认为，后续股价向上的关键是出口高增能否持续转化为集团利润率改善。看好2H26出口表现，维持138.53港元目标价及买入评级。

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