分析:强就业推高加息押注 美联储若按兵不动 全球市场更加危险

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【分析:强就业推高加息押注 美联储若按兵不动 全球市场更加危险】 一份强劲的就业报告足以推动市场加大对美联储加息的押注,并引发美国国债收益率曲线显著熊市趋平。在新任美联储主席凯文·沃什减少前瞻指引的背景下,经济数据的重要性进一步上升。这也给沃什带来压力,要求他兑现杰克逊霍尔会议上释放的鹰派信号,因为在全球央行纷纷收紧政策之际,如果美联储按兵不动,可能导致美国国债收益率曲线陡峭化。大量劳动者失去临时保护身份,一度成为一个不确定因素,理论上使非农就业连续第二个月下降成为可能。然而,8月非农不仅好于预期,此前数据还被上修。再加上劳动参与率上升、薪资增长强劲,这份就业报告可以说全面表现强劲。这使得下周的CPI报告变得更加关键。这将是9月联邦公开市场委员会会议前最后一项重要经济数据。目前市场定价显示,届时美联储加息的概率约为60%。

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