金吾财讯 | 猪肉概念股局部走强，牧原股份（02714）涨9.27%，中粮家佳康（01610）涨8.45%，德康农牧（02419）涨4.73%。国信证券表示，2027年猪价预计将企稳上行，有望开启新周期。近期仔猪和母猪触达历史新低位置，从历史上看，仔猪价格与生猪价格接近，代表周期情绪见底，这是反转的前瞻指标，后续能繁母猪有望进一步加速去化。从产能来看，2026Q2末官方能繁存栏已降至3780万头，季度环比减少3.20%，相比2026Q1环比去化1.41%加速，相较2024年11月的高点已累计去化7.4%，对比2025年上半年末的产能调控起点已去化6.5%。另外，2026年7月涌益、钢联、卓创统计的能繁分别环比-0.01%、-0.62%、-1.48%，同比-3.54%、-5.64%、-6.64%，延续去化趋势。考虑到当前生猪及仔猪价格仍在周期底部，高成本产能将持续面临现金流压力，该机构预计接下来几个月能繁产能会进一步加速去化，到2027年猪价有望开启的周期反转。
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