美国财政部长贝森特公开施压后，本月要做出政策抉择的日本银行行长植田和男遭遇了金融市场可能陷入剧烈动荡的异常严峻风险。

　　如果对贝森特几乎毫不掩饰的加息呼吁置之不理，不仅会打全力押注收紧政策的交易员个措手不及，还会引发日元急剧下挫。那反过来又会推升已经迈向3%的通胀预期。

　　然而，仅仅将1%的基准利率上调25个基点可能不会产生什么实质效果，尽管此举将标志着日本央行加息周期的提速。日本央行鹰派审议委员高田创周三抛出了大幅加息的试探，可能会进一步削弱上调25个基点的作用。

　　从某个角度来看，贝森特的施压或许起到意想不到的作用，因为这样一心要给日本经济添柴加油的首相高市早苗就更难拖央行紧缩的后腿。然而，这同样孕育着风险。

　　“在美国做了如此明确的表态后，我觉得要是日本央行不采取行动就会引发问题，” 摩根大通证券首席日本经济学家Ayako Fujita说，“但如果日本央行被认为在没有美国助力的情况下就没法加息，那就会给加息的效果造成巨大风险。”

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