ChainCatcher 消息，据 CoinDesk 报道，衡量中国新增信贷相对 GDP 变化速度的“信用脉冲”指标正在闪红灯。彭博中国信用脉冲指数近期报 20.84 点，为 2008 年以来最低水平。该指标由经济学家 Michael Biggs 于 2008 年提出，被认为与全球制造业周期相关，并领先标普 500 回报约 12 个月。
法国兴业银行策略师 Albert Edwards 警告，忽视中国近期货币紧缩可能成为“十年最大的投资错误”。尽管指标走弱，比特币 8 月仍大涨 25% 并一度突破 8 万美元，主要受美国现货 ETF 资金流入、空头回补以及此前落后于股市资产的补涨推动。
展望后市存在两种情景：一是比特币继续上行，因当前加密交易主要由美国机构资金驱动，对源自中国信贷状况的信号敏感度降低；二是若美股如 Edwards 所料回落，避险情绪可能外溢至比特币。哪种情景会兑现仍有待观察。
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