【券商聚焦】招银国际维持蔚来（09866）买入评级指毛利率展现韧性

金吾财讯

Sep 02

金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，蔚来-SW（09866）2Q26毛利率韧性，SG&A超预期致亏损扩大。2Q26收入同比增69.1%至321亿元，超该机构预测约1%；综合毛利率18.4%（同比提升8.4个百分点、环比回落0.7个百分点），低于该机构预测0.4个百分点，毛利额59亿元大致符合预期；但SG&A超该机构预测约5亿元（管理层归因新车发布营销），归母净亏损环比扩大2.26亿元至7.22亿元，较该机构预测多亏约6亿元。销量下调，但毛利率韧性推动2H26亏损收窄。该机构基于3Q26指引及管理层“4Q26月均交付4万台+”目标，将FY26E销量下调8%至42.3万台；因产品结构改善、且管理层指引2H26整车毛利率维持2Q26水平，将FY26E毛利率上调0.4个百分点至18.3%，预计2H26归母净亏损环比收窄、4Q26趋于盈亏平衡。新车与成本控制推动2027转盈。ES6/EC6、ET5/ET5T及一款乐道战略级新车计划于FY27E上市，ES8成功上市的经验提升新车成功的确定性；假设SG&A与研发合计费用率17.5%，该机构预计FY27E归母净利9.68亿元（较此前预测上调50%）。维持买入评级，美股/港股目标价下调至6美元/47港元，对应0.7倍FY27E市销率。

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