Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】中信证券：供给收缩具备持续性 煤价中枢或继续上移

金吾财讯
Sep 04

金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，2026年上半年，受煤价同比上涨及成本管控的带动，样本公司加总净利润同比增长约34%，Q2环比增长约41%，业绩显著改善。中期分红活跃度持续提升，板块现金分红金额同比增长约28%。5月下旬山西矿难过后，安监趋于严格，6~7月份全国原煤产量同比下滑均在10ppts左右。该机构预计年内政策力度和供给收缩效应具备持续性。而需求虽然同比趋弱，但季节性的需求脉冲释放或同样可支撑煤价走强。供给偏紧的状况下，短期港口动力煤价或突破1000元/吨，产地优质主焦煤均价或达到3000元/吨，Q3/Q4均价中枢环比或继续上移，板块业绩弹性或进一步放大，特别是冶金煤板块Q3盈利环比或增长60%。近期供给收缩的效应持续显现，各类煤价逐步创出年内新高；展望后市，若非电行业9～10月份需求释放，动力煤价有望进一步上行；若钢铁需求和价格回暖，焦煤价格则有更大的弹性。该机构继续看好供给收缩下的板块行情，近期板块波动的背景下，可逢低参与。风险因素：地缘冲突缓和、海外煤炭减产不及预期，导致国际煤价系统性下跌；宏观经济波动，影响煤炭需求和煤价；供给收缩政策执行力度不及预期、安监力度有所放松，导致供给增加；能源结构加速调整、节能减碳力度加大，增加煤炭消费压力；天气因素扰动或影响煤价预期。

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