据 Woofun AI 消息，比特币市场正经历从传统四年周期向 6 到 8 年华尔街节奏的范式转移，分析师伍认为这一转变标志着宏观因素对资产定价权的重塑。
2024 年 4 月比特币完成减半，区块奖励降至 3.125 比特币，年新增供应量约 164,250 比特币，占流通总量 0.82%。Woofun AI 整理数据显示，预计 2028 年下一次减半后，年新增量将进一步缩减至 82,125 比特币，占比降至 0.41%，供应冲击效应显著递减。
相比之下，交易所交易产品、企业债券等机构渠道已累积超 270 万比特币，规模达矿工年产出 16 倍以上。随着这些资产沉淀于企业资产负债表及受监管投资产品，矿工新增供应对市场边际影响持续弱化，机构持仓成为主导变量。
信贷环境、全球流动性及投资组合资金流向正取代减半事件成为核心驱动力。货币政策与投资者心理因素交织，使得四年周期规律仅具参考意义。6 到 8 年周期理论虽未完全证实，但已清晰反映比特币金融化后的新运行逻辑。
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