国信证券:保险负债端转型深化 资产结构配置再平衡

智通财经
Sep 03

智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研报称,保险行业负债端持续深化产品、渠道与成本的全方位转型,分红险转型与渠道质态改善稳步推进,承保盈利韧性不断增强。资产端方面,险资长久期资产配置与高股息底仓需求延续,资产结构再平衡稳步推进,盈利稳定性逐步提升。

国信证券主要观点如下:

业绩:利润高增,投资驱动

2026年上半年上市险企盈利显著提升,中国人寿新华保险中国平安中国人保中国太保归母净利润分别同比+228.6%/+54.0%/+36.1%/+38.5%/+10.4%,业绩分化主要系投资端弹性差异所致。承保利润持续发挥盈利压舱石作用,对应五家险企承保利润贡献率分别为26%/41%/44%/53%/67%,投资端成为本期业绩核心增量来源。

寿险:NBV稳增,分红险实现价值再平衡

寿险新业务价值维持高景气,中国人寿新华保险、中国人保中国平安中国太保分别同比增长33.7%/11.9%/2.5%/11.2%/12.7%。分红险成为主力,平安新业务分红险占比超90%,太保提升至55.5%,有效承接储蓄需求但价值率偏低。渠道端65号文推动银保向价值转型,保费增速显著分化。头部险企通过拉长缴费期、深耕高客群、布局康养生态主动平衡规模与价值,CSM余额较年初增速普遍提升,未来盈利空间持续扩容。

财险:COR持续改善,承保韧性凸显

2026年上半年三家头部财险合计保费同比+2.1%,车险中新能源车型贡献核心增量,三家新能源车险保费增速均超20%,太保占比达23.9%;非车险中意健险、责任险等险种持续扩容。承保盈利持续改善,人保财险、平安财险、太保财险COR分别为94.5%/95.1%/95.0%,同比下降0.8pt/0.1pt/1.3pt,费用率受益于报行合一实现普降。上半年极端自然灾害推升赔付压力,头部险企通过大灾准备金计提平滑波动,非车险综合治理成效显现。

投资:三维再平衡,分账户策略对冲波动

上半年行业总投资收益率收益权益市场回暖普遍改善,净投资收益率受利率下行影响整体承压,险企投资端表现分化。头部险企在股票结构、大类资产、基金配置三大维度同步推进再平衡:权益内部呈现加仓OCI高股息、压降TPL交易型成长股的特征,其中国寿OCI股票余额+69%、平安+17%,并主动压降TPL股票敞口达21%;大类资产“非标转标”趋势明确,五家公司广义非标占比均下行0.7-1.7pct;基金配置分化,新华、人保基金余额增幅超30%。基于IFRS17实施分账户差异化配置,传统险账户以OCI资产稳利润,分红险账户依托CSM博取收益弹性。

风险提示:保费收入不及预期;资本市场延续震荡;长端利率下行等。

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