Market Talk Roundup: Latest on U.S. Politics

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0013 ET - The investor appeal of major bond markets is crumbling in a very orderly manner, says Sean Callow, strategist at InTouch Capital Markets. There's no panic, just an increasingly clear picture of sticky inflation reinforced by fading hopes for a return to pre-Iran war oil prices, he adds. The notion of political leaders running on fiscal prudence seems almost quaint, Callow says. The U.S. declaration that it can just grow itself out of its debt burden only adds to global jitters. Little wonder we have had such a strong investor preference for equities this year, Callow adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1549 ET - Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem played down the impact interest-rate cuts can have in helping an economy dealing with elevated energy prices and heightened uncertainty about trade with the U.S., says Nomura economist Ruchir Sharma. During a press conference, Macklem "reiterated that monetary policy cannot offset the structural effects of tariffs," Sharma says. Macklem is of the view that the policy rate at 2.25% is providing some stimulus to the economy, Sharma adds. He tells clients the governor's reference to firms' adaptability to the turbulent trade environment indicate the BOC is not overly concerned about a deep drop in growth stemming from new U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliatory duties. Nomura "now see risks more clearly skewed toward tightening" in Canada, Sharma says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

1109 ET - A key downside risk to August's payroll numbers is the expiration of TPS-related work authorization for Haitian nationals, wrote EY-Parthenon's chief economist Gregory Daco and senior economist Lydia Boussour. Roughly 200,000 individuals are estimated to have held work authorization under the temporary protected status program, though the number of directly affected workers remains uncertain. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect 53,000 jobs added on Friday--higher than EY-Parthenon's estimate of 35,000. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0902 ET - New York Federal Reserve president John Williams says long-term bond yields are driven by the broad strength of the U.S. economy and heavy capital spending on AI. A glut of investment demand for data centers and tech infrastructure is increasing funding costs broadly, Williams tells CNBC. "It's not really about financial conditions affecting the economy, its about the economy affecting financial conditions," he says. Core inflation may be over target, but that excess is driven by high energy prices tied to conflict in the Middle East and tariffs, Williams says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

0704 ET - Chevron is taking steps to more than double its production in Venezuela, planning to invest more than $7 billion in the country over the next five years. The company says Wednesday it has entered multiple agreements with the country, establishing updated terms with its joint ventures to support future investment, project development and production growth. The agreements came after President Trump last week said the U.S. reached a deal with Venezuela to secure control of a big chunk of the country's oil reserves. "With improved terms and additional acreage, we are strengthening a portfolio that we believe can deliver attractive low-cost oil growth, support energy supply and create differentiated long-term value," Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0449 ET - The oil market is increasingly pricing the cost of an unresolved war, Phillip Nova'a Priyanka Sachdeva says in a note. The latest disruption is no longer limited to military escalation, as reports of attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz bring the risk directly into the physical oil supply chain, the analyst notes. The most feasible outcome now looks like stretched negotiations and prolonged trouble for oil flows, rather than a quick resolution, she says. The longer the disruption continues, the greater the risk that higher crude prices become embedded into inflation expectations and eventually into monetary policy decisions, Sachdeva adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0352 ET - The yen gets some support from hawkish comments from BOJ officials--including Gov. Ueda--which reinforce market expectations for a rate hike this month, MUFG's Lee Hardman says. After crossing 160 against the dollar, the yen is back below the closely-watched threshold. Ueda's latest remarks at a G20 meeting gave the clearest signal yet that the BOJ is preparing to tighten--a 25bp rate hike in September is fully priced in, Hardman says. Hawkish BOJ member Takata also gave a speech saying this year represents a "regime change," in which rate hikes will be "conducted in a nimble and data-dependent manner." For Hardman, the hawkish repricing of BOJ expectations is positive for the yen but not enough to trigger a rebound yet. Dollar is last at 159.65 yen. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0156 ET - Some form of a deal between the U.S. and Iran is still likely before the U.S. midterm elections in November, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. "We are still optimistic that we would have some sort of a deal before the mid-terms," the global economist says. From Iran's perspective, President Trump is likely to be ready to give more concessions before the midterms, while from Trump's perspective, if he can secure a deal before the midterms, "it could potentially help in the odds for the Senate which is currently looking too close to call," Kumar says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0106 ET - Investors are likely face a period of higher yields for longer, Vontobel's Christian Hantel says in note. The global bond sell-off continues on the back of renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran and rising oil prices as a result, the portfolio manager says. Investors also seem to digest Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium and his more hawkish tone, he says. "As Warsh was very firm on bringing down inflation to the 2% target, he also emphasized that there could be more work to do to ultimately achieve this goal," he says. "So now we are likely to live with higher yields for longer."

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