NIO Stock Drops. the Weak Chinese Car Market is Too Much to Overcome.

Dow Jones
4 hours ago

First came earnings, then came downgrades. The weak Chinese car market is too much for electric vehicle maker NIO to overcome.

On Tuesday, NIO reported reasonable second-quarter numbers. Sales of $4.7 billion, up 69% year over year. The forecast of third-quarter sales, however, was $5 billion, lower than the $5.3 billion Wall Street projected.

Shares dropped 7.1% on Tuesday after the report as cost inflation, competition, and falling government incentives plague the Chinese car market.

Following earnings, Citi analyst Jeff Chung cut his sales estimates and price target to $7.10 from $8.20. He kept a Buy rating on shares, though. JPMorgan analyst Nick Lai downgraded shares to Hold from Buy. His target went to $4.50 from $7.

The cuts weighed on NIO stock on Wednesday. Shares were down 4.4% in midday trading at $3.88, while the S&P 500 was up 0.5%. Declines left shares off 41% over the past 12 months.

NIO isn't unique. Shares of BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto were down 23%, 47%, and 52%, respectively, over the past 12 months.

The weakening Chinese car market has weighed on the global auto sector this year. Amid falling sales, Chinese auto makers have looked to Europe to support growth, which has pressured the profitability of European auto makers. Shares of Mercedes-Benz Group and BMW were off 14% and 33%, respectively, over the past 12 months.

Honda is asking suppliers for more than $9 billion in cost savings, achieved over four years, to overcome Chinese headwinds, according to Reuters. Honda's annual cost bill is about $120 billion.

The U.S. car market has been relatively insulated by high tariffs. Ford and GM investors can thank multiple presidential administrations for those policies. Ford Motor and General Motors shares were up 18% and 44%, respectively, over the past 12 months. (GM doesn't have a European business. Ford does.)

Ford reported U.S. sales for August on Tuesday. Total unit sales landed at about 171,000 vehicles, down 10% year over year. That's in line with the year-to-date decline, which is a little worse than the overall market decline of about 3%. Ford has had some supplier issues, however, including a fire at an aluminum plant.

Ford's EV sales were down almost 80% year over year in August. The EV business just isn't what it used to be after the loss of the $7,500 federal purchase tax credit about a year ago.

At least the overall U.S. market is stable, which can't be said about China right now.

 

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