What the Fed's Beige Book Says About Inflation, Jobs, and Data Centers

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Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's concern about rising prices won't be assuaged by new central bank data released on Wednesday.

At the bank's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo. last week, Warsh said "the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices." The August Beige Book underscores his belief that inflation poses a bigger risk than joblessness right now.

In anecdotal surveys, businesses and community members in the 12 Fed districts reported that rising energy prices are putting price pressures on businesses and consumers, but the labor market is largely holding up just fine. This economic picture makes an argument for raising the federal funds rate at the Fed's next meeting on Sept. 15-16 to clamp down on inflation. The odds of a interest-rate hike are currently 62%, according to CME FedWatch.

Here are four takeaways from the latest Beige Book:

War-related price pressures are building

As the Iran war dragged on in August, the inflation outlook became more pessimistic in some districts. Prices increased in all 12 districts-moderately in most, but robustly in one.

Manufacturers and construction firms said they are facing price pressures as their input costs rise due to the Iran war and tariffs. Insurance and healthcare costs also created "significant" price pressures.

Some surveyed businesses reported heightened consumer price sensitivity-some say they aren't passing on higher input costs to consumers and instead are accepting smaller margins.

Consumer health is solid, though cracks are showing

Despite inflation concerns, consumer spending grew slightly on net.

It was a bifurcated growth story. The Cleveland, Richmond, and St. Louis districts saw consumer spending fall. And respondents in multiple districts reported that low- and moderate-income consumers are resisting price increases and seeking out more value-friendly options, as rising prices at the gas pump strain their pocketbooks.

While the New York district saw greater consumer spending than in July and solid spending from high-end consumers in the luxury sector, it also saw other consumers "trading down." One moderately priced restaurant in the district said it has seen more guests, as consumers moved away from higher-end consumption. A "flight to value" was also reported in the Atlanta and Chicago districts.

The labor market remains stable

Seven regions saw employment growth, and five had an unchanged job market. Some respondents felt the labor market was entering a "low hire, low fire" environment and that the job market was tightening. Jobs were reportedly harder to come by in the Minneapolis district, for instance.

Construction and manufacturing sectors drove employment and wage growth for skilled workers in some areas, such as the Richmond district, home to many major data-center projects. Data centers are "straining" the pool of available workers there; one Maryland construction company said it has increased wages by 35% in an attempt to retain workers.

Data centers are fueling growth

While the Cleveland district has seen weak demand for the fourth survey period in a row, its manufacturing demand is booming, thanks to the data-center build out. This has created growth opportunities in the region. The Minneapolis district also saw greater worker demand because of data-center construction and manufacturing.

Subtract data centers from the economic equation, however, and the picture changes. In the St. Louis district, construction activity is slowing if you remove data centers. As one respondent in the Chicago district said, "without data centers, construction would be in a recession."

Write to emily.russell@barrons.com.

 

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