Harley-Davidson (HOG) earnings estimates were raised following its Q2 results, reflecting "slightly higher" shipment expectations, "tariff refunds," and stronger anticipated earnings from Harley-Davidson Financial Services, UBS Securities said in a note emailed Wednesday.

UBS raised its 2026 shipment estimate to 127,800 units from 126,600 but remains below Harley-Davidson's guidance of 133,500 to 138,500 units. It also expects shipments to be flat in Q3 and rise 9% in Q4, the note said.

Analysts raised their 2026 EPS estimate to $0.44 from $0.16, primarily reflecting stronger expected HDFS operating income. It also increased 2027 EPS estimate to $2.18 from $1.95, while the 2028 estimate was increased to $2.59 from $2.27.

Motorcycle revenue estimates were raised to $2.74 billion for 2026, $2.76 billion for 2027 and $2.79 billion for 2028, but lower parts and accessories revenue caused total HDMC revenue estimates to be reduced for all three years. For gross margins, the firm cut estimates by 80 basis points each year, to 24.2% in 2026 and 25.0% in both 2027 and 2028, according to the note.

2027 tariff costs are now expected to be "higher" than the company's management anticipated in May, creating an additional earnings headwind, the analyst said.

UBS reiterated a neutral rating on Harley-Davidson and raised its price target to $28 from $26.

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