ChainCatcher 消息，据彭博社报道，瑞银集团分析师预计，未来十年内中国半导体制造能力可能难以取得足够快的进展，从而开发出能够真正替代阿斯麦尖端 EUV 光刻技术的方案。瑞银分析师在报告中写道，“他们目前所处的阶段似乎与阿斯麦在 2004 年时相当”，从专利申请活动来看，尤其是在光源和激光子系统领域，中国当前技术成熟度大致相当于阿斯麦开始大规模生产 EUV 设备前 15 年的水平。
瑞银同时预计，中国有望在未来两到五年内具备浸没式 DUV 光刻机的大规模量产能力。浸没式 DUV 虽不如 EUV 先进，但仍是芯片制造不可或缺的设备。阿斯麦浸没式 DUV 售价近 9000 万美元，EUV 设备每台超 2 亿美元。中国是阿斯麦最大市场之一，但受出口限制，阿斯麦被禁止向中国出售 EUV 设备。瑞银指出，考虑到良率和产能差距及监管限制，中国光刻设备不太可能在境外得到应用。阿斯麦发言人对置评请求未作回应。该报道基于瑞银分析师的预测观点，实际进展以产业动态为准。
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