金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示，今年以来，央行未再调降7天逆回购利率，长端国债收益率下行。与4月初相比，当前的短期资金利率没有更低，10年期国债收益率的下行主要靠降息预期推动。当前利率互换隐含降息预期已经处于历史偏强位置，但该机构认为降息预期兑现节奏仍然存在不确定性，对于同一个驱动因素（内需相对偏弱），市场和政策的考虑可能不完全相同，前者从融资需求不足的角度认为未来利率还有下行的空间，后者则从控制金融风险和政策收益成本权衡的角度考虑，对降息的节奏比较审慎。如果央行进行实质性降息，在融资需求恢复之前，可能要考虑对金融机构的净资本有更妥善的安排。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.