The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0855 ET - The rise in oil prices stretches into a fourth day with the resumption of fighting in the Middle East rekindling concerns about tight global supplies for longer. "Some measure of comfort had gradually been developing as increased ships were reportedly exiting the Strait of Hormuz," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. But with a diplomatic solution seen far off "it is safe to say that there is no end in sight to this quagmire that is likely to keep petroleum prices much elevated through the end of this year." WTI is up 1.6% at $92.46 a barrel, and Brent gains 1.1% to $96.65 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0852 ET - Gold prices extend gains in early U.S. trade, supported by a weaker dollar and as Treasury yields decline from multi-year highs. New York futures are up 2.4% to $4,522.30 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index is down 0.6% to 99.01, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. Traders now await the release of U.S. jobs data this week, which could further shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision this month. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders currently price in a 60% probability that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0803 ET - The yen is climbing further against the dollar, bringing its two-day gain to around 2%, with traders on alert for a possible currency intervention. "Japanese officials from the MoF have been remarkably quiet while policymakers at the BoJ have stepped up their hawkish rhetoric with talk of 'outsized' rate hikes as they seek to cement expectations for tightening at the next meeting on September 18th," Scotiabank currency strategists say in a note. They believe dollar sentiment faces a further test this morning, with a range of data releases including the trade balance, weekly jobless claims and ISM services data ahead of Friday's August jobs report. "We remain cautious on the broader USD outlook, believing that the hawkish repricing of near-term Fed risks is unlikely to be reflected in [a] rate hike later this month." (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
0753 ET - Anglo American is progressing on its planned simplification and is well-positioned to create significant value, Jefferies analysts write. The London-listed miner is expected to complete its $53 billion merger with Canada-based Teck Resources by March 2027, but Jefferies believes it could close by the end of this year. "Overall, Anglo's plans and execution have been just what the doctor ordered for a recovery from the company's challenging 2023," the analysts say. Jefferies has a buy rating on the stock and atarget price of 50 pounds. Shares are up 1.1% at 41.78 pounds and 35% higher over the year to date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0620 ET - Palm oil prices ended lower amid a broader risk-off tone in Asian markets, as rising crude oil prices stoked inflation concerns and expectations for tighter monetary policy, says Kenanga Futures analysts in a note. Upcoming U.S. employment data would provide further clues on the interest-rate outlook, they say. Meanwhile, the rebound in U.S. stocks and continued bargain hunting may help limit further downside in the broader Malaysian market, they add. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery ended MYR56 lower at MYR4,902 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0411 ET - Persian Gulf oil flows appear higher than visible data suggest, although exports remain well below pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs. Accounting for "dark" tanker crossings, total Gulf exports are estimated at 15 million-16 million barrels a day, around two-thirds of pre-war levels, compared with visible flows of about 10 million barrels a day. The upward revision over the past two weeks appears to reflect more tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz with tracking system signals switched off, analysts at the bank say. However, Red Sea flows have fallen by 4.5 million barrels a day in August as Saudi Arabia redirected shipments from Yanbu to eastern ports amid Houthi-related security concerns, Goldman data shows. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0357 ET - Copper prices are flat in early European trading, but still above the $14,200-a-metric-ton mark as persistent supply issues continue to provide support. Renewed attacks between the U.S. and Iran raised concerns that high energy prices could hit economic activity and metals demand. However, copper supply remains tight, with the latest export ban from Congo adding to weaker production in Chile and Peru and El Nino-related disruptions, according to analysts at ANZ. Tight concentrate availability is also squeezing refiners, with China's refined copper output falling 3% year-on-year to 1.1 million tons in June, the Australian firm says. Meanwhile, tariff uncertainty continues to distort global copper flows, encouraging metal into the U.S. and pushing Comex inventories to record highs. Three-month futures on the LME are flat at $14,229 a ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0349 ET - Gold prices rise more than 1% as the dollar weakened after U.S. private payrolls data pointed to slower job growth in August. Investors are now focused on interest-rate expectations, oil prices and bond yields worldwide. "While the market is pricing a more than 60% probability of a September rate hike, the question remains whether the Fed will tighten that close to the November midterm elections," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "For now, gold's inverse correlation with oil prices and bond yields remains a key focus, sidelining other potentially supportive drivers," they say. In early European trading, futures are up 1.3% at $4,472.20 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0311 ET - Gold prices could still decline, despite their recent bounce, says Tickmill's Joseph Dahrieh in a commentary. The precious metal may be weighed down by Fed Chair Warsh's recent hawkish remarks and oil-driven inflation concerns from the renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. Investors are focusing on the coming U.S. nonfarm payrolls figures for August, which could offer further clues on September rate-hike bets. A weak reading could lead to lower rate hike expectations and extend gold's bounce. However, a stronger print could lift Treasury yields again and cap gold's gains, he says. Spot gold is 0.7% higher at $4,423.17 an ounce.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0046 ET - Paladin Energy's Patterson Lake South uranium project already contributes more to Macquarie's valuation of the stock than the company's operating Langer Heinrich mine. "And with time passage and resource growth, this gap looks set to expand further," says the bank. Recent drill results have increased management's confidence in PLS resource growth, and Paladin has time to consider offtake strategies, Macquarie says. It upgrades the stock to outperform from neutral and raises its target by 7% to A$13.85/share. The stock is up 4.2% at A$11.58. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2242 ET - Copper prices are higher in early Asian trade, supported by supply concerns after Chile's July output fell 9.4% from a year earlier due to severe weather and mine maintenance, Huatai futures analysts say. Low domestic inventories also continue to underpin the market, though elevated prices are capping demand as downstream buyers remain cautious ahead of the traditional September peak season, they say in a note. Investors also look ahead to U.S. economic data--namely the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report--for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Overall, copper remains cautiously bullish, with any price pullback likely to attract buying interest. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.3% higher at $14,261.00 a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2241 ET - Palm oil rises in Asian trading, driven by severe dry weather that is disrupting palm oil shipments in Kalimantan due to declining water levels in key rivers, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Drought and intensified wildfires in Sumatra and Kalimantan could weigh on palm oil output, it says. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures remain in positive momentum, with any pullbacks attracting buying interest, it adds. AmInvestment Bank expects palm oil prices to face resistance at 4,989 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,922 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 25 ringgit at 4,983 ringgit a ton.