ChainCatcher 消息，日元近期兑美元大幅走强，美元兑日元（USDJPY）汇率下跌 1.4% 至 156.4，延续周三 0.9% 的跌幅。美元指数（DXY）随之回落 0.4% 至 99.22，正测试其 200 日均线 99.1 附近。在此背景下，比特币与黄金同步走高，与“日元走强通常引发避险抛售”的传统认知形成反差。
分析指出，日元走强之所以利好比特币，主要在于其压低了美元指数，而美元走弱通常对以美元计价的资产构成支撑，并缓解全球金融条件。不过，若日元涨势加速，这一动态可能迅速逆转。过去十余年间，交易员大量借入廉价日元用于股票、债券乃至加密货币的看涨押注，日元无序升值可能触发这些头寸的平仓，引发风险厌恶情绪。
日元快速升值此前曾对比特币构成压力，最典型的是 2024 年 8 月日元套利交易平仓期间，比特币在数日内下跌约 20%。目前交易员正加大对日本央行在 9 月 18 日会议上将利率从 1% 上调至 1.25% 的押注，且美日当局此前已被报道出手干预以支撑日元，日元进一步走强的阻力较小。
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