美联储理事沃勒:三个月核心通胀显示出“显著改善” 且速度“令人鼓舞”

格隆汇
Sep 03
美联储理事沃勒:如果8月份的通胀数据延续近期的进展,将支持维持政策利率不变。如果八月份的通胀数据表现强劲,将考虑支持在九月份加息。对反应函数的沟通有助于公众进行规划。可能不需要通胀大幅加速就可支撑更紧缩的政策立场。若8月通胀数据显示进展出现逆转,对政策利率进行“小幅调整”将有助于确保进展恢复。 关于价格和经济前景如何受到军事冲突、贸易政策和人工智能影响,存在相当大的不确定性。GDP增长仍在“稳健”水平,股价上涨应能支撑消费增长。通胀水平显著高于美联储2%的目标。能源价格高企和关税并不是持续通胀压力的显著来源。基础通胀“表现优于”核心数据所暗示的情况。 劳动力市场状况良好,预计8月份的就业报告将继续保持这一趋势。通胀存在一定上行风险,但工资增长符合预期,正回归2%的水平。三个月核心通胀显示出“显著改善”,且速度“令人鼓舞”。整体PCE和核心PCE并不是判断通胀走向的最佳指标。商务部对非市场价格估算的待定修正可能使12个月PCE降低零点几个百分点。

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