Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0244 GMT - Palm oil rises in Asian trading, tracking overnight gains in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade. The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association's projection that El Nino impact could reduce next year's output by about 5 million tons could also help support prices, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. AmInvestment Bank estimates palm oil prices to face resistance at 5,084 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,823 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 92 ringgit at 4,986 ringgit a ton.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0243 GMT - Liontown's comments about "thicker ore zones" could help alleviate market concerns around feed availability, Macquarie says. It calls the remarks "a key positive" amid mixed fiscal 2026 results. The lithium miner aims to increase its annual production rate to 2.8 million metric tons from 1.5 million tons by end-FY 2027. However, open-pit stockpiles are expected to be exhausted during 1Q, after which the plant will use underground ore. "LTR confirmed that FY27 production guidance already incorporates available ROM [run-of-mine] inventory and expected disruption from tie-in activities," says Macquarie. "Management also highlighted flexibility within its offtake arrangements and confirmed that no third-party ore purchases are required in FY27." Macquarie has an outperform rating and a A$1.50/share target on Liontown. The stock is up 1.6% at A$1.245. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0204 GMT - Liontown's 1H FY27 could be particularly weak, with stockpiles depleted and underground volumes still to ramp up, says UBS. The bank expects FY27 spodumene concentrate production at the low end of company guidance and costs at the high end, as the underground ramps output. UBS says Liontown's chemical-linked pricing has resulted in lower prices than peers. That should improve as lagged contracts decline from two thirds of sales to one third from January 2027, it says. "Understanding the pending 2-3 year investment cycle (while the operation ramps up Stage 1) remains the main catalyst," UBS says. A final investment decision on an expansion at Kathleen Valley is expected at the end of 1Q. UBS keeps a neutral rating and trims its price target to A$1.40 from A$1.45. Shares are up 2.9% at A$1.26. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0154 GMT - Copper rises in early Asian trade, with the three-month LME copper contract up 0.8% at $14,403.00 a metric ton. Supply-side issues remain, as data highlight challenges ahead for the copper market, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. The world's top copper producer, Chile, reported that output fell 9.4% in July from a year earlier, ANZ notes, citing data from the national statistics agency. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0052 GMT - Gold rises in early Asian trade. The macro environment has become more supportive with softer U.S. data, easing yield pressures and a less consistently strong U.S. dollar which helps precious metals regain momentum, OCBC Group Research writes in a note. While Fed chief Warsh's Jackson Hole speech may temporarily limit near-term upside on concerns of Fed rate hikes, it doesn't substantially affect the broader picture, including structural supports like central bank demand for gold and persistent supply constraints in silver, OCBC adds. Spot gold is 0.1% higher at $4,453.66 a troy ounce. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

2136 GMT - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met with senior executives from nearly two dozen corporations and pension funds to discuss domestic economic policy amid a deteriorating U.S.-Canada trade relationship, the leader's office says. In a statement, Canada's Prime Minister's Office adds Carney asked leaders to share their thoughts on what might be required. Canada and the U.S. broke off trade talks this month, leading to the U.S. slapping a 50% tariff on about $20 billion in Canadian goods. Canada intends to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products next week. Among the companies participating in the Carney meeting were Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian National Railway, Nutrien, BCE and Teck. Pension-fund participants included the CPP Investment Board, Ontario Teachers and La Caisse. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @Paulvieira)

1930 GMT - Oil futures rise after the U.S. struck Iranian rocket launchers which it said were preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded firing missiles at U.S. targets in Jordan. The skirmishes "tend to be non-escalatory and the gains tend to be limited," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. Oil prices "may remain stuck in their broad sideways path until elections in Israel and the United States are concluded," he says. Meanwhile there are no signs of a near-term return to negotiations or intentions by either side to make concessions, "keeping escalation risks present." WTI settles up 2.8% at $85.76 a barrel for a 1.3% monthly gain. Front month Brent rises 1.3% to $90.49 for a 0.4% gain in August. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1909 GMT - Pork cutout values climb in the USDA's morning report, with the average carcass cutout price rising $3.49 per hundredweight to $99.55 per cwt. Pork bellies posted a $12.08 per cwt rise in that report, climbing to $166.86/cwt. Higher cutout prices are supportive for higher hog futures, with the most-active contract trading on the CME settling up 2.4% to 74.05 cents a pound. Live cattle futures bounce off a 9-month low, climbing 0.4% to $2.1265 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1904 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures settle higher as hot weather keeps up cooling demand and LNG feedgas flows continue recovering. Gains are likely due to the "impressively hot versus normal weather pattern the next 6-7 days," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. The tropical depression that has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to reach the coast between Texas and Louisiana Tuesday evening as a tropical storm will likely have little impact "including the loss of demand through showers and cooling," the forecaster says. "Very minor disruptions to LNG and U.S. production are also possible." Nymex natural gas settles up 1.6% at $2.935/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1854 GMT - The kind of heavy oil with high sulfur content that the U.S. looks to secure with its Venezuela deal could be attractive to refiners either set up to process it, or if it's discounted enough to blend with lighter crudes, but there are problems, Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. As Venezuelan production slid and relations with the U.S. deteriorated over the years, Canada filled the void and supplies U.S. refiners with 4 million barrels a day of heavy crude, he says. "No geopolitical mayhem. Every barrel arrives at the refinery on time." The U.S. already has the heavy oil it needs to meet diesel demand, and Venezuela will have little chance penetrating the U.S. market as long as cost of carry weighs heavily in Canada's favor. "It will be a tough sell," Yawger adds. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1845 GMT - Front-month gold futures finish August up $382, or 9.4%, to $4,431.10 a troy ounce, which is the best month for the yellow metalpercentage-wise and in total dollars since February, according to data from FactSet. It's also the second-straight month that gold has finished higher, but analysts say that macro conditions appear to be turning less supportive toward precious metals. "Following the pessimistic statements by Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole on Friday, the market returned to favor more pessimistic paths for interest rates," says Simon-Peter Massabni of XS.com in a note. Silver gained 15% for the month. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1822 GMT - Gold futures post back-to-back losses as a renewal of military action in the Persian Gulf follows what were seen as hawkish comments on Friday by Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh. "The metal could remain exposed to the geopolitical developments in the Middle East, where a rebound in oil prices could fuel inflation concerns again," Critical Metals CEO Tony Page says in a note. "Any softness in incoming inflation and labor data could ease the pressure, while firmer figures or more hawkish Fed comments may extend the decline." Front month gold settles down 1% in New York at $4,431.10 a troy ounce, while ending the month up 9.4%. Silver falls 1.2% to $66.221 a troy ounce, for a 15% monthly gain.

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