Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】中金公司：券商ROE重回十年高点 行业格局将优化

金吾财讯
Sep 04

金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示，1H26权益市场上行周期叠加商业模式变革，上市券商ROE重回10年新高，头部券商ROE领先行业（1H26上市券商ROE达10.7%，营收同比+46%，扣非归母净利润同比+64%；前十大券商ROE达12.2%，营收同比+56%，扣非归母净利润同比+75%）。该机构认为，优质头部券商凭借大财富、科创投资、国际化三条主线下的差异化优势，有望一改此前同质化竞争下ROE中枢下行趋势，其ROE中枢已进入上行通道，业绩增长仍可持续，行业格局亦将优化。该机构指，行业竞争格局持续优化，头部集中趋势有望从波动上行走向逐步抬升，行业并购整合加速推进。1）券商行业集中度有望改变历史上受市场影响的周期性波动特征，形成集中度逐步抬升的趋势。“9.24”以来的牛市行情中，行业集中度稳中有升，2026年以来集中度继续抬升。拆分来看，头部券商更高的增速，得益于投资、经纪、资管、投行、利息收入的全面领先，以及子公司收入的显著高增。2）该机构预计行业并购重组将持续加速推进，证券公司的价值将更加取决于业务能力而非牌照准入，大中型券商出于资本补充、区域资源整合优化等原因合并中小券商，推动行业格局的进一步优化。

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