ChainCatcher 消息，Bitfinex 发文分析称，尽管宏观环境趋紧，比特币仍持稳于 77,100 美元上方。上周美联储主席 Warsh 在杰克逊霍尔的鹰派讲话后，BTC 从 81,000 美元上方回落，但 8 月上涨主要由现货买入驱动而非过度杠杆——未平仓合约逐步上升，基差相对克制，上周美国现货比特币 ETF 净流入近 10 亿美元，以太坊投资产品连续 10 日净流入 8.157 亿美元。
宏观方面，美国 PCE 通胀 3.7%、核心通胀 3.3%、二季度私人需求年化增长 4.2%、本财年前 10 个月赤字达 1.8 万亿美元，Warsh 确认 2% 通胀目标是硬约束，市场将 9 月加息概率提升至 57%。Bitfinex 认为，ETF 和稳定币流动性持续支撑价格，但加息预期限制上涨空间，若加密流入保持韧性将证明潜在需求依然稳固。
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