广发证券:如何看8月非农数据和公布后市场表现

广发证券
Sep 06

摘要  第一,根据美国劳工部9月4日公布的数据[1],8月新增非农就业16.2万人,显著高于预期的5.6万;前值合计净上修5.5万,其中7月由-2.3万上修至2.1万、由负转正。回头来看本轮非农初值,3月-5月数据偏强、6-7月则显著低于预期,8月则再度偏强。  第二,为何非农月度波动这么大?我们理解它本来就是一个经验上呈“锯齿状”、高噪声特征的数据:(1)它是一个绝对值数据,天然不如景气扩散数据...

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