德意志银行策略师Henry Allen认为，从价格面临的上行压力来分析，投资者低估了遏制通胀所需的加息幅度。

　　他表示，一边是对美联储和欧洲央行加息有限的展望，一边却是不断攀升的通胀压力，但这种“根本性脱节”看来无法持续。美国供应管理协会（ISM）上周四公布的数据显示，8月服务业原材料等价格涨幅达到了新冠疫情爆发后的水平，而当时美国CPI高达5%。

　　“要么通胀得下来，否则利率压力就会继续存在，” Allen在周一发表的研报中写道。

　　中东冲突的延宕持续推动石油和天然气上涨，同时依然受阻的供应链和极端天气也导致食品及金属价格飙升。尽管美联储主席凯文·沃什上个月曾告诫说通胀并未出现实质性放缓，但互换市场仍预计美国央行2027年7月底前只会加息两次。

　　“市场持续消化的美联储浅度加息周期与他们过去加息周期的做法不符，” Allen还说，过去五年中有四年投资者都低估了决策层行事的激进程度。

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