TradingKey - SanDisk begins today at $1,740.00 per share, a 11.90% increase over Friday's close and exactly what is shown on our chart. With U.S. markets closed today for Labor Day, SanDisk is presently the new closing benchmark for tomorrow. The breakout above $1,720.48 improves the technical analysis, while considerations remain excellent. Q4 sales increased to $8.97 billion, data-center sales more than doubled sequentially, and Q1 guidance signals another increase. The largest concern is the valuation is stretched along with the stock and NAND pricing.

Q4 Revenue Reached a Record $8.97 Billion

SanDisk posted revenue for Q4 of $8.965 billion, a 51% increase from the prior quarter. On a GAAP basis, net income was $6.90 billion, or $43.97 per diluted share, while non-GAAP EPS was $39.25. GAAP gross margin improved to 84.6% from 78.4% in the prior quarter.

For the full fiscal 2026, revenue increased by 175% over the prior year to $20.25 billion. This represents a remarkable increase in sales and improvement in margins due to tight supplies of NAND, improvements in pricing, and revenue from a better and more high-end mix of AI and data-center business.

Data Center Revenue Is the Main Growth Engine

Q4 data-center revenue was $2.977 billion, a 103% increase over the prior quarter, while full year data-center revenue was $5.153 billion, an increase of 437% over the prior year. Edge revenue in Q4 was $5.432 billion, while revenue from Consumer declined on a quarterly basis.

This is important to consider since SanDisk is becoming more exposed to AI infrastructure and enterprise workloads, where capacity, endurance and power efficiency is becoming a better economic proposition as compared to consumer flash.

Q1 Guidance Signals Another Step Higher

Management anticipates fiscal Q1 2027 revenue in the range of $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $44 to $46. This would represent revenues in the range of $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion, reflecting a sequential increase of approximately 18% from a record breaking Q4.

The primary risk is sustainability. From management's perspective two-thirds of the sequential revenue growth in Q4 was the result of pricing. If we were to experience an erosion in NAND average selling prices, the downside not only on revenue but also on margin could be material.

Long-Term Agreements Improve Visibility

SanDisk executed 10 New Business Model agreements by Q4, both with new customers and expansions of old. These new contracts are focused on improving volume visibility and addressing the cyclicality of NAND that has existed in years past.

SanDisk also used Investor Day to detail a more challenging long-term goal that included targeting mid- to high-teens annual revenue growth from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030 and offering to return 100 percent of excess cash after supporting the company through internal investments.

$31 Billion Japan Expansion Supports AI Capacity

SanDisk and partner Kioxia are planning to spend over $31 billion in Japan by 2032 (should the government decide to offer their support). This is a joint effort and is not specifically a SanDisk allocation. It will offer an increase in advanced flash-memory technologies and capacities to support AI and large-scale workloads.

The most challenging of the company's new problems will be balancing supply against demand. As the demand for AI-driven storage increases, more supply will be needed, but adding supply could lead to a drop in NAND pricing, which hurts the bottom line.

September 8-9 Investor Conferences Are the Next Catalysts

The next catalysts for SanDisk will be the Investor conferences on Sept. 8 and 9. Management will be presenting at Citi's Global TMT conference on the 8th and at Goldman Sachs's Communacopia + Technology conference on September 9.

The focus from investors will be on sanity checks expressed for NAND pricing and where SanDisk stands for the demand for AI driven Data Center and where the company is on new corporate-customer agreements. The Kioxia's announced planned capacity will be watched as well along with where SanDisk management expects they can sustain the very high gross margins seen in recent earnings.

SanDisk Technical Analysis: $1,720.48 Is the Key Breakout Pivot

With Friday’s close at $1,740.00, SNDK surged 11.90%, confirming a decisive break above the $1,608 – $1,720 resistance zone. The accumulation structure was likely to be broader than this level due to the sequence of higher lows within the rising trendline.

SanDisk Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The first priority is to hold $1,720.48. If $1,720.48 holds and becomes a support zone, the breakout would be expected to continue to $1,824.57. A sustained breakout above $1,825 would expose the next significant zone at $1,941.34.

RSI at 77 is well over the 70 overbought zone. This keeps bullish momentum strong, however, a pullback is expected along with consolidation. If $1,720 holds, the broader $1,608 breakout zone is expected to provide support, along with the moving average and the rising trendline at $1,526.82.

Key Levels

·       Latest completed close: $1,740.00

·       Short-term pivot: $1,720.48

·       Major breakout support: $1,608

·       Moving average support: $1,526.82

·       First upside target: $1,824.57

·       Major resistance: $1,941.34

·       RSI: Around 77, firmly overbought

Why is SanDisk stock in focus?

Increased visibility and broad AI-storage cycles should support SanDisk, as should high NAND pricing and an expanding data-center business. The next catalysts may be management talks at Citi (9/8) and Goldman Sachs (9/9).

What level confirms further SNDK upside?

To confirm further SNDK upside, the focus should be on whether $1,720.48 holds. A breakout sustained above $1,824.57-$1,825 would set the focus on $1,941.34.

Bottom Line

SanDisk’s fundamentals include setting records for revenue, margin, and data center growth numbers, coupled with aggressive AI-storage investment. The main concern is that current profitability relies upon elevated NAND pricing while the stock is technically overbought. I am bullish above $1,608 with $1,720.48 as the key short-term pivot. Continued support above that is needed to maintain the price objectives of $1,824.57 and $1,941.34.

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