【欧元走势承压，薪资增速放缓削弱加息预期】欧元区第二季度薪资增速放缓，降低了收紧货币政策的必要性，同时给欧元带来下行风险。雇员人均薪酬同比上涨 3.3%，低于今年第一季度的 3.5%，已十分接近欧洲央行提出的 3% 增速水平。欧洲央行表示，从中期来看，该薪资增速大体可以匹配 2% 的通胀目标。该数据不太会改变市场对本周欧洲央行会议的预期，经济学家与交易员普遍预计央行将加息 25 个基点。但数据令市场对此次加息之后是否还需要继续加息产生质疑，数据也印证第二轮通胀效应仍处于可控范围，而这正是政策制定者重点关注的指标。相关关联数据显示，欧元兑美元汇率对利差变动愈发敏感，进而对政策预期的变化反应强烈。市场目前定价到 2027 年年中合计约 75 个基点的加息空间，交易员存在充分理由下调加息押注，进而利空欧元。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.