【高盛：三重风险推升农产品价格 贸易壁垒或放大冲击】高盛最新研报指出，全球农业市场虽然以相对充足的库存进入2026年，但霍尔木兹海峡、黑海局势和“超级厄尔尼诺”三重风险正在同时上升，加之各国贸易政策日益内向化，农产品价格面临更大的尾部上涨风险。高盛认为，更大的风险来自贸易保护放大冲击。2020年以来新增农业贸易限制措施年均数量大致翻倍，出口禁令和囤库存粮可能抽走远超实际减产规模的国际供应。若市场因贸易壁垒被切割，同样的供应冲击在规模减半的区域市场中，价格影响可能扩大一倍。
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