金吾财讯 | 中信证券研究指，OCS是不经电域、直接在光纤端口间建立物理光路的交换设备，主要应用于AI集群的Scale-up/out/across电交换场景，拥有低功耗、协议透明与拓扑可重构三重优势。Cignal AI预测，2030年全球OCS市场规模或将超过80亿美元，对应2026—2030年复合增速超30%。该机构认为，随着谷歌集群网络架构升级（3D→6DTorus）、新客户导入加速，全球OCS市场需求有望大幅增长。目前国内厂商已具备光学层等多环节供应能力，份额增长趋势明确。风险因素：AI资本开支不及预期；谷歌TPU出货与集群部署节奏不及预期；新客户导入进度延迟；OCS产能爬坡受阻；技术路线切换风险；地缘政治与出口管制风险；竞争加剧与产品价格波动风险。
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