高盛上调2026年12月及2027年油价预测,每桶上调5美元,新的判断依据是中东航运中断局面将延续至明年。
高盛分析师达安・斯特鲁伊文(Daan Struyven)等人撰文称,布伦特原油2026年12月预测价调整至每桶85美元,2027年为每桶80美元;西德克萨斯原油2026年12月预测价为每桶80美元,明年为每桶75美元。
本次上调幅度有限,原因是冲突爆发以来,经合组织商业陆上库存几乎未见消耗,表明原油供应缺口小于市场此前预期。即便航运受阻持续,分析师预计中东供应能够做出调整,“暗地流转原油” 规模将扩大,多条管道也将2027年末投产。
油价上行风险依旧突出,短期风险尤为显著。
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