东方汇理：10年期美债收益率或闯5% 全球股市正处于十字路口

智通财经

Sep 08

智通财经APP获悉，美国加息预期升温下，10年期美债收益率徘徊4.7%，加上美伊冲突未止息，油价仍然高位，影响全球投资气氛。东方汇理资产管理亚洲高级投资策略师姚远表示，鉴于10年期债息已处于近期交易区间上限，若油价突破每桶100美元，美联储启动进取的紧缩政策，或者美国财政恐慌加剧，不排除债息上涨至5%的可能。

股市方面，姚远认为，全球股市正处于十字路口，寻求短期方向。AI生态系统中面临的风险增加，超大规模云端服务商自由现金流急剧下降，资本支出更依赖资本市场融资，AI债务供应指数级增长。同时，主权债券发行竞争加剧及央行收紧货币政策预期令资本成本正在上升，故任何融资成本上升正在抑制人工智能支出的迹像或打击市场情绪，引发新一轮抛售。

此外，AI变现进展缓慢加剧市场忧虑，亦面对中国开源架构抢占市场的威胁。因此，即使仍然看好AI长期发展前景，但已不再是整体水涨船高，当前投资需要更多的纪律与耐心，建议在中、中、下游多元布局。

港股方面，姚远认为，港股无法幸免于全球流动性收紧、地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及人工智能(AI)引发的科技股抛售潮的影响。缺乏本土增长动力下，港股转向外部寻求方向，因应宏观不确定性，建议投资要保持审慎。

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