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煤炭股局部承压 兖矿能源（01171）跌3.68% 煤电全国装机第一地位被光伏取代

金吾财讯
Sep 07

金吾财讯 | 港股煤炭股局部承压，截至发稿，金马能源（06885）跌4.84%，兖矿能源（01171）跌3.68%，力量发展（01277）跌3.25%，中煤能源（01898）跌2.83%，中国神华（01088）跌2.67%，易大宗（01733）跌2.67%，MONGOL MINING（00975）跌1.55%，中国秦发（00866）跌1.37%，久泰邦达能源（02798）跌1.16%。消息面上，国家能源局最新数据显示，截至今年7月底，全国光伏发电装机规模达12.86亿千瓦，首次超越了煤电12.85亿千瓦的装机规模。此外，今年上半年，全国煤电发电量占比首次跌破50%。不过，开源证券研究认为，当前煤价进入上行阶段，行情驱动正由旺季需求逐步转向供给收缩。“查超产”及安全监管趋严制约主产区产量释放，供给恢复仍需时间；随着冬储启动及取暖旺季临近，煤炭供需基本面有望进一步改善。动力煤受益于现货价格上涨及长协机制对产业链利润的稳定作用；炼焦煤市场化程度更高，对供给变化及下游补库节奏更为敏感，价格及业绩弹性相对更大。煤炭股双逻辑之二：稳健红利。多数煤企仍保持较强分红意愿，在宏观环境及资本市场波动加大的背景下，高股息资产仍具配置价值。随着煤价回升改善煤企盈利预期，煤炭板块有望由单一红利逻辑逐步转向周期与红利双重驱动。

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