上周末伊朗与美国相互袭击油轮，欧洲天然气价格应声走高。供应中断持续，市场愈发担忧中东战争难以迎来解决。
基准期货最大涨幅4.5%，交易价格接近三年高点。伊朗方面表示，打击了未经授权穿行霍尔木兹海峡的关联美国船只，并威胁要在海峡外划定新的限制区域。美国军方此前称，已袭击三艘伊朗油轮。
在经历一段相对平静期后，冲突再度激化，上周欧洲天然气价格大幅飙升。冲突升级削弱液化天然气供应恢复的预期，全球约五分之一的液化天然气运输仍滞留在波斯湾。
与此同时，多艘卡塔尔空的液化天然气油轮正向海湾返航，表明该供应国或许在调配船舶，准备恢复出口。上个月，卡塔尔将面向欧亚买家的液化天然气交付不可抗力状态延续至10‑11月，供应能否恢复的持续不确定性支撑价格维持高位。
全球液化天然气运输受阻，加大欧洲在冬季来临前补充储气库的难度，欧洲储气库存处于历年同期的历史最低水平。荷兰国际集团在研报中表示，随着2026‑2027供暖季临近，市场“脆弱性不断上升”。
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