华泰证券谈8月非农:除非8月CPI数据显著放缓,否则美联储9月不加息或难以维持公信力

格隆汇
3 hours ago
据华泰证券,8月非农大幅超预期,前两个月有所上修,失业率也维持低位,而在Jackson Hole会议上沃什近乎“完美”的鹰派讲话引导下,联储不加息的公信力风险较高,骑虎难下。2026年8月美国新增非农16.2万,大幅高于彭博一致预期(下同)的5.6万,前两个月累计上修5.5万;8月失业率在劳动参与率超预期走高下维持4.1%的低位;小时工资环比增速回升至0.3%,同比放缓0.1pp至3.1%,均符合预期;每周工作时长超预期上行0.1pp至34.4小时。8月非农走强虽有此前异常偏弱的地方政府、休闲酒店就业回补的推动,但前值上修、失业率维持低位,叠加沃什此前近乎“完美”的鹰派表态,除非此后公布的8月CPI数据出现显著放缓,否则联储9月不加息或难以维持公信力。

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