德意志银行策略师在最新研报中警示：大宗商品推升通胀，而市场预期央行只会有限度收紧政策，二者冲突，全球股票与信贷市场或将面临剧烈重估。
债券抛售已经把全球收益率推至多年高位，但市场仍在定价温和宏观环境：经济稳健、通胀受控、加息幅度有限。德银认为这种均衡十分脆弱，能源、食品及原材料成本持续给通胀加压。
霍尔木兹海峡局势动荡是核心风险源。布伦特原油接近96美元/桶，欧洲天然气期货触及2023年初以来高点；小麦、玉米、食糖等食品大宗商品价格上行。但期货仍然计价未来12个月能源价格下行。该行写道：“如果该预期落空，将形成严重市场错位，股票与信贷资产将直面下行冲击。”
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