金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，市场普遍将钠电视为锂价高企时的对冲品种，认为锂价回落后钠电经济性不再成立，而该机构认为钠电的产业逻辑已从锂价对冲切换到自身经济性：目前钠电池产业化信号已明确，且未来降本路线清晰，差异化优势催生应用场景，钠电产业化进程逐步与锂价脱钩。该机构测算五大应用场景在2026-2030年先后达成平价，钠电需求在2030/2035年可达800/2047GWh，其中储能贡献接近8成。节奏上，2027-2028年是产能与订单的验证窗口，2029年之后进入规模释放期。平价时点决定可行性，拐点与市场体量决定收入弹性，该机构建议关注电芯与材料环节。1）电芯环节，关注率先导入的钠电池厂商——储能定体量、AIDC定节奏，建议关注已进入电站示范或数据中心供应链验证的电芯企业；2）材料环节，钠电开辟的是新的材料市场，正极与负极的体系与锂电不同、供给格局尚未定型，先发与技术领先者享有超额收益，建议关注NFPP与层氧正极、硬碳负极，以及用量约为锂电两倍的铝箔环节。
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