金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券研究指出，8月我国出口增速小幅回升继续高增，全球PMI回暖、AI产业仍处于极高景气区间、新能源汽车出口维持高增以及涨价因素继续对出口增速带来支撑；8月进口增速回升至28.2%（前值27.6%），月度进口额连续三个月超过2800亿美元级别，进口增速维持开年以来高增态势。该机构表示，维持全年出口增速两位数高增判断，后续增速仍将维持高韧性：有利因素一是7-8月均受台风扰动，关键在于订单未流失，8月新出口订单PMI回升0.5个百分点至50.1%，重返扩张。9月份台风扰动影响大概率减弱，对应延迟货量继续释放，出口仍具额外支撑；有利因素二是AI超级周期仍在上行阶段；有利因素三是受益于全球绿色低碳转型深入推进、机械设备竞争力进一步上行等，我国新能源汽车、船舶等机械运输设备仍有望维持高增。后续可能的拖累因素一是随着节前出货以及赶关税预期落地的抢出口需求逐步释放，后续需求将出现回落；因素二是当前PPI增速已过年内高点位置，对应价格的贡献也将达到高点，后续支撑效应或将减弱。
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