【券商聚焦】光大证券:我国三季度出口韧性可能继续好于此前预期

金吾财讯
Sep 09

金吾财讯 | 光大证券研究指,我国出口方面,8月出口继续维持高景气,同比增长25.0%,增速较7月小幅上升,环比增长0.9%。从绝对金额看,8月出口额仅低于今年6月的4119.2亿美元,为历史第二高单月水平。该机构认为,出口韧性主要来自三方面:一是全球制造业景气仍处扩张区间,外需总体稳定;二是AI及电子产业链维持高景气,集成电路、自动数据处理设备等继续贡献主要增量;三是市场多元化延续,对东盟、韩国、非洲等非美市场出口保持较快增长,对冲了对美贸易摩擦带来的压力。该机构预计,三季度出口韧性可能继续好于此前预期。8月我国出口新订单PMI重新站上50%,全球制造业PMI继续扩张,AI资本开支仍处于高位,同时对东盟、韩国、非洲等非美市场出口保持较快增长。产业竞争力和市场多元化仍能够为出口提供一定支撑。但该机构表示,出口韧性能否延续取决于三个方面,一是,全球需求能否维持稳定。当前全球制造业仍处扩张区间,但若主要经济体增长明显放缓,非美市场对出口的支撑也会随之减弱。二是,AI链景气能否延续。集成电路、自动数据处理设备仍贡献了较多出口增量,但当前金额增长中价格和产品结构贡献较大,后续需要关注全球AI资本开支和半导体需求变化。三是,贸易摩擦是否进一步升级。美国关税政策仍存在不确定性,同时欧盟及其他经济体对我国优势制造业的反补贴、关税和本地化要求也可能增加,对出口形成结构性压力。

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