Bessent Says 'I am the House Now.' What it Means for the Yen - and U.S. Stocks

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a group of students that "he is the house now."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has never been accused of being a wallflower, but speaking in front of Southern Methodist University's business school on Tuesday night he made perhaps the most strident comment of his governmental career.

Bessent was speaking not just of the Treasury's recent intervention in support of the Japanese yen but also of the American efforts to shore up the Argentine peso ahead of the last election.

"Whenever people say, 'oh, well, the treasury secretary is taking a risk,' well, it's my dream. I have asymmetric information. I am the house now," said Bessent, a former macro trader.

"So when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do. Bet against me if you want."

So far the intervention in foreign exchange has been a success, while the public announcement that the Treasury would buy long-dated securities BX:TMUBMUSD30Y had only a momentary effect of curtailing yields. Bessent's intervention in the debt market was criticized by his mentor, Stanley Druckenmiller.

The U.S. dollar (USDJPY), which traded at nearly 164 yen before the joint U.S.-Japanese intervention, now is trading around 153 yen.

"The casino analogy only works if yen weakness were speculative," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. "If the pre-intervention yen level were fundamentally driven, the better (if obscure) analogy is the U.K.'s 1992 exchange rate mechanism crisis. In that case, Bessent's should declare 'I am Lamont.'"

Lamont was the U.K. chancellor who tried - unsuccessfully - to keep the U.K. in the European exchange rate mechanism.

Rich Privorotsky of Goldman Sachs wrote in a note that the secondary implication of Bessent's comments are what matters to stocks. The concern is that investors borrowing in the low-yielding yen to reinvest elsewhere - what's called the carry trade- will have to pare or eliminate those bets as the yen rises.

"What happens as yen funded carry trades unwind back into Japanese bonds/equities? The S&P and mega cap complex have felt strangely heavy without a great fundamental reason. Worth keeping in the back of the mind that some leverage/carry may simply be diffusing out of the system," he said.

Related: Why a stronger Japanese currency could spell trouble for AI and technology stocks

-Steve Goldstein

 

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