Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
6 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2020 ET - Oil rises in early trade on escalating concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. ANZ Research analysts say that reports of Iran-backed Houthi militants seizing the port city of Mokha on Yemen's west coast could give the militants a foothold and enable them to control the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The strait is a chokepoint for energy exports through the Red Sea. These attacks are weighing on Saudi Arabian oil exports, the analysts say in a report. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are up 0.5% at $103.01 a barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.4% higher at $108.10 a barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1537 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle modestly higher after the EIA reported a fourth straight below-average weekly storage build, although the 40 Bcf injection landed above market expectations. "With weather-related demand continuing to wane and reduced consumption over Labor Day weekend, we would expect storage injections to trend higher beginning with next week's report," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "From there, builds will ramp until heating demand begins driving more consumption in October." Nymex natural gas settles up 0.4% at $2.834/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1536 ET - Oil futures rise the their highest level in nearly four months with increased fighting across the Persian Gulf region raising supply worries. "Iran has stated they are ready for a more intense war and President Trump stated the conflict will last into the mid-term elections, which now has solidified the fact that tighter supplies are being priced in for the foreseeable future," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Futures are in an overbought condition, "with a corrective phase due," he adds. WTI settles up 6.7% to $102.48 a barrel and Brent gains 6.3% to $107.63, their highest closes since May 19. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1359 ET - Gold futures lose ground as a pickup in U.S. producer price inflation in August raises expectations of a Fed rate increase next week, while conflict escalation in the Middle East pushes up oil prices. "Gold faces a combination of negative factors, driven mainly by the lack of a near-term horizon for settling the Middle East war, along with high escalation risks that fuel waves of bond-yield increase globally," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. Front month gold settles down 1.2% at $4,364.50 a troy ounce. Silver falls 5.4% to $64.284 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1126 ET -- Dubai leads most major Gulf stocks lower as escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on Saudi Arabia keep regional risks elevated. The Dubai Financial Market General Index falls 0.4%, Qatar's QE Index declines 0.3% and Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index edges down 0.1%. Abu Dhabi's benchmark index bucks the trend, edging up 0.1%, with major constituent ADNOC Gas rising 0.6%. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz strengthens the case for ADNOC Gas to have export capacity on the U.A.E.'s east coast as the government considers ways to reduce reliance on the waterway, Barclays analyst Ramachandra Kamath says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1047 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories rose more than expected last week, while the increase was small enough to reduce the storage surplus over the five-year average. Underground storage rose by 40 billion cubic feet to 3,254 Bcf, or 148 Bcf more than the 2021-2025 average, the EIA says. The storage injection was larger than the 28 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts, but smaller than the five-year average 52 Bcf build for the week. Nymex natural gas futures are off 1.6% at $2.777/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1038 ET - European energy producers and insurance companies are likely to benefit due to the elevated energy prices and the European Central Bank decision to increase interest rates, eToro's Lale Akoner says in a note. The ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.5% during Thursday's policy decision, as markets expected. Sectors that could be negatively affected by the rate increase include property, housebuilders, smaller companies, and retailers, she says. "Banks may benefit initially from wider lending margins, but that advantage will fade if loan demand weakens and defaults rise." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1022 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower for a third straight session as the market awaits inventory data from the EIA while focusing on coming mild weather. "A third failed attempt at $3.00/mmBtu has recast momentum steeply lower," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. A widening year-over-year storage deficit could provide near-term support for prices, although a key driver of weakness remains the winter strip with robust end of season storage, increasing production and prospects of a mild winter weighing, he adds. Nymex natural gas is off 1.6% at $2.776/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1018 ET - The El Niño system that's in place now is getting stronger, enough so that the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now views there to be a "greater than 90% chance of a very strong event" in the Northern Hemisphere this fall into this winter. The Climate Prediction Center classifies an event as 'very strong' if the average sea surface temperature deviates more than 3 degrees Celsius higher. An El Niño climate system tends to create mild winters for the northern U.S., while the southern U.S. gets hit with hurricanes potentially exacerbated by the warmer waters. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1010 ET - Grain futures trading at multi-year highs this year prompted hopes for farmers who have suffered from past low commodity prices and inflated input costs for fertilizer and seeds. But surging fuel prices from wars overseas threaten to evaporate any benefit from those higher crop prices. According to AAA, current retail diesel prices set a new high, at $5.9773 a gallon. For farmers, this means harvesting may prove to be an even-steeper expense than anticipated. Last week, the USDA forecast 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion--up from its previous forecast of $153.4 billion. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0958 ET - Oil futures are sharply higher with WTI hitting $100 a barrel for the first time since May amid increased military strikes between the U.S. and Iran and Houthi advances toward the Bab el-Mandeb strait. "The move is raising fresh concerns about the security of global energy supplies," Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com says in a note. "A sustained move above $100 in WTI would put renewed upward pressure on inflation expectations." WTI is up 4.1% at $99.95 a barrel and Brent is 3.8% higher at $105.10 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0954 ET - Gold and silver futures are lower in the wake of the report showing U.S. producer prices accelerating in August. The decline in precious metals comes amid a rise in yields to at least three-year highs, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. Both metals have held the lower limits of their recent pullbacks, he adds. "This is a positive sign and suggests that yields may become less of a negative factor for precious metals going forward." Gold for December delivery is off 1.1% in New York at $4,411.70 a troy ounce. Silver falls 5.1% to $65.115 a troy ounce.

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