Concerns about inflation have been driving the 10-year Treasury yield higher for weeks. Then on Friday, inflation data was fairly hot-and the 10-year yield fell.

What gives?

It's helpful to remember that the 10-year yield largely reflects investors' expectations for what short-term rates set by the Federal Reserve will average over the next decade-not just the next few months. Expectations for higher rates in the near-term can drive the 10-year yield higher. But at some point, they can also have the opposite effect, as investors bet that higher rates now will reduce the risk that the Fed will need to tighten policy even more aggressively down the road.

Eric Winograd, chief economist at AllianceBernstein, said it makes sense that the 10-year yield would tick lower because it had already climbed so much recently. Friday's data, he added, "gets you to a point now where it's a very high conviction view" that the Fed will raise rates next week, reducing a concern that the Fed might be complacent about inflation.