交易员押注欧洲央行和英国央行将加息四次 油价飙升加剧通胀担忧

智通财经
Sep 10
【交易员押注欧洲央行和英国央行将加息四次 油价飙升加剧通胀担忧】交易员正在加大对欧洲央行和英国央行加息的押注,因为能源价格上涨可能令通胀在未来一年难以消退。互换市场目前显示,交易员预计欧洲央行到2027年12月将加息约90个基点,为本轮紧缩周期中最高。这意味着政策制定者在此期间可能需加息三次,每次25个基点,并有60%的概率进行第四次加息。互换市场显示,预计英国央行同期加息幅度也大致相当,将推动利率升至2025年2月以来最高。欧洲和英国均高度依赖进口石油,尤其是天然气,因此经济容易受到价格飙升的冲击。市场普遍预计欧洲央行将在周四会议上加息。互换市场的变动凸显市场对伊朗战争引发通胀飙升的担忧。

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