分析师:美联储加息概率仍悬而未决,通胀数据是关键变量

格隆汇
Sep 11
分析师Brandon Brown表示,在强劲的非农就业报告公布后,市场目前对美联储9月会议的加息定价约为15个基点。鉴于美联储理事沃勒强调,下一轮通胀数据将决定他的投票立场,因此,在通胀数据公布前,市场对9月会议的加息预期接近50/50是合理的。我们认为,美联储委员会很可能再次出现意见分歧,尤其是在通胀数据表现温和、且美联储再次选择按兵不动的情况下。基于PPI和CPI向核心PCE通胀的传导效应来看,维持利率不变还是支持加息的门槛可能在于核心PCE环比增幅达到0.25%左右。从收益率曲线远端来看,市场预期到2027年年中加息幅度将略高于60个基点。但我们认为,即使数据表现强劲,短期内加息次数也不太可能超过3次。

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